Due to the Corona virus, we are on the cusp of powerful potential narratives, few of them favorable. Though there is not yet enough information to project any as being more likely than another, it is worth considering them all.
Here is the worst case scenario:
The Conronavirus quickly becomes a pandemic. The United States remains largely unaffected due to our geographic isolation and strong disease prevention infrastructure. Reports of mass death, shortages, and unstable governments come in from around the world. In times of instability, populations tend to prefer the known to the unknown. And so, since Trump is at the helm and the disease has not hugely disrupted the United States (we are seen as a safe zone – an island in the middle of a flood) his numbers rise as the election nears. Sanders, running on a ticket of radical change,drops in popularity as the electorate shifts toward a desire to not rock the boat. Trump wins the election. The virus strikes hard domestically after the election, hitting us in Winter. Production slows, shortages appear,and state governments are unable to effectively respond to national supply chain disruptions. The United States congress declares martial law. Trump takes control, and due to the extreme situation, checks and balances are bypassed in favor of immediate chain-of-command decisions and policies. Slowly, eventually, the pandemic runs its course. International economies are ruined. The United States was hard hit but stands well above any other nation or alliance in both economy and capability. As a result of shutting our borders in our attempts to stop/slow the infection, and with Trump in charge of a direct command network with his hand-picked loyal supporters in all positions of power, congress overturns term limits for the presidency, reverting to the days of Franklin Roosevelt who was elected to four terms. Having put political cronies in charge of election systems, Trump is reelected until his demise, and then power is passed to his son.
Now, this sounds pretty far out, and requires a lot of elements to break in the worst possible direction.
Here are a few key narrative points to watch:
- The stock market continues to drop, losing the economic edge Trump has enjoyed.
- The virus reaches the United States in a big way much sooner, and Trump is seen as ineffectual and asleep at the wheel.
- Sanders modifies his campaign rhetoric to focus on the need for socialized services to provide national support where corporations have failed to work together to the peril of the population.
- Threatened by his draining support, Trump makes erratic moves and repeatedly violates his oath of office to the point that he is seen by the electorate as working to profit from the virus, even when doing so puts the nation in harm’s way.
Of course, the virus may wash up against our shores and recede. The rest of the world may gain control more quickly and minimize its effect, and it all might be behind us by the presidential election, returning to a level playing field for the contest between Sanders (and his philosophy) and Trump (and his).
Bottom line:
- Keep your eyes open
- Watch for key narrative points
- Be prepared